Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
